The Euroquestion #2 | France

This article is a part of a new series of reports called "The Euroquestion" where we explore the individual future prospects of the leading nations in the European Union, and then delve into the collective prospects of the EU as a bloc and explore its destiny.


France's president Emmanuel Macron has just concluded a pivotal visit to the United States, where Ukraine was taken up along with many other significant issues. This visit is proving to be a consequential visit for the future of the war in Ukraine, and its future course. Through this step by the French government, France is seeming to signal its intent of assuming a more proactive role in European security policy, with regards to its internal security, as well as outside the European Union, with its advanced involvement in the Indo-Pacific, through its strategy for the region.

With a nominal GDP of US$3.2 trillion, France is one of the three leading economies of the European Union, and with a GDP growth of 0.7% in 2024, it is also proving to be one of the only drivers of growth in the European Union. And with the only nation within the EU having a permanent membership on the United Nations Security Council with veto powers, France has historically been considered the foreign policy and geostrategic guide for the European Union.

France, as a major defence supplier and exporter, with a defence spending of US$61.3 billion, it is one of the major players in the context of European defence supply and export. It has also been one of India's most trusted defence supply chain partners, with French Dassault Mirage aircraft playing a significant role in the Indian Air Force's arsenal, along with the new Rafales that are set to lead the IAF into the future.

France has been, so far, one of the only major nations to resist the surge of the right in Europe, by maintaining a centrist policy on the EU, as well as domestic political issues, but much like Germany, it is also suffering from heightened economic stagnation, and uncertain consumer sentiment, thanks to the war in Ukraine, and its subsequent knock on effects with respect to food and energy security.

Unlike Germany however, in the post World War II period, France has been more strategically ambitious, in the sense that it has advocated for the longest time, for greater independence from the United States' defence umbrella, and self-sustenance capabilities in EU defence matters. In the present scenario, those calls might hit home a touch more than usual.

Signals from France in recent times have indicated that it wants to transcend its usual geostrategic ambit from the EU and Mediterranean region, to the Indo-Pacific region, as evidenced by greater cooperation with India on said matters, as well as heightened deployment of its military in the Indian Ocean region. Though France does not possess much relevance in this context given the existence of the Quad, it is looking to change this as an exercise in maintaining relevance on the world stage, and to have a significant stake in the world order that will emerge in the long-term future. Whether its efforts will succeed however, only time will tell.

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