The Euroquestion #3 | Italy

This article is a part of a new series of reports called "The Euroquestion" where we explore the individual future prospects of the leading nations in the European Union, and then delve into the collective prospects of the EU as a bloc and explore its destiny.


Italy, being one of the "Big 3" economic powers of Europe, is in a period of great flux, both in its internal affairs, as well as its affairs within the European Union. As one of the few countries in Europe that are ruled by a right-wing government, namely the Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy) under the incumbent prime minister Giorgia Meloni, it is signalling a shift from its traditional post-WWII stances, through tougher stances on immigration and economic austerity.

With a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$2.46 trillion, Italy is a major player in the economic affairs of the European Union, with its famed luxury goods, products and automobile industries, with a perception of luxury and quality associated with Italian-made products. However, akin to Germany and France, it faces economic stagnation in its own right, and is struggling to compete against stronger and more agile economies across the Atlantic and Indian oceans.

Italy, unlike its western neighbours, France and Germany, lacks a robust defence industry, with a defence spending of US$35.5 billion, its expenditure is almost half that of both France and Germany with US$61.3 billion and US$66.8 billion respectively, and thus stands to lose much more from the rhetoric of the current US administration, that is threatening to withdraw the security umbrella on the European continent. 

Though the current ruling party, the Brothers of Italy, ran on a broadly Eurosceptic agenda, its Prime Minister is now singing a tune of broad support to the European Union, however with major changes proposed to overhaul it's governance structure, aligning with her own agenda. However, given her credentials, she has maintained a courteous relationship with the government across the pond in the US, which may serve as an important bridge across the Atlantic.

Many in Europe are looking to Italy in general, and Meloni in particular to serve as a bridging power, and Meloni also seems to be taking this responsibilty quite seriously. She seems confident of the extent of US involvement with respect to European security matters and the Ukraine war, assuring that Trump will remain committed on this front.

However, beyond the current crisis at hand, Italy still suffers from its fundamental weakness of its own inadequate defense arrangements. At a time when even much larger powers are concerned about possible rearmament, a power like Italy, at a risk of losing US security guarantees, feels a severe need to follow in their footsteps. To what extent, or if at all it is able to do so, will largely determine the geostrategic relevance of the European Union on the world stage.

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